建设银行:经济回暖带动盈利向好

Construction bank: economy picking up drive earnings is going well

In the background of economy picking up, the construction bank credit adjustment for propulsion, asset quality stable since the latter half of 2012, with steady growth as the goal of the investment project to start, with the leading of this economy picking up obvious signs. To the end of the year, the enterprise inventory, industrial added value and macroscopic indexes appear to improve trend. Under this background, the construction bank credit demand in the second half of the stable, credit steady growth. The credit structure continues to advance, increase retail and small business loans on the dynamics, selectively participate in major infrastructure projects, the main security construction in continuous key investment project credit demand. The asset quality remained stable, including zhejiang small businesses, the main risk factors, has set up a file in the early release by the end of the basic, is expected to remain stable for defect rate at the end of the third quarter of basic and same, still is about 1%.

Benefit from the loan pricing power stable, net spreads steady slightly drop in all market liquidity is still steady partial tight situation, banking loan pricing power generally stable. As a large businesses, the construction bank deposit DuanChong pricing progress quickly, we according to the 2012 NianZhongBao heavy pricing structure, is expected to more than 80% of the deposit has been completed during the year heavy pricing, so the cost of funds down faster. The construction bank and long-term loans more, years to complete heavy pricing loan is only 70% or so, progress is slow in small and medium-sized Banks, so 2012 years loan interest rates fall co., LTD., the years net spreads remained in stable level, the third quarter by quarter even slightly up. We expect the fourth quarter still keep the level, steady slightly drop, annual net income at around 2.71%, with the first three quarters slightly down three basis points.

Commission income reason picks up, supervision affect basic release before the third quarter, the economic weakness, market downturn, supervision strictly influence, settlement liquidation, agency, financial consulting revenue decline, the construction bank commission income year-on-year growth rate fell to 1.6%. The fourth quarter, with the macro economy and market warmer, commission income is expected to rebound, the year-on-year growth of 8%.

In 2012 is expected to 14% profit growth, maintain increasing rating we expect that the construction bank in 2012 net profit year-on-year growth of 14%, earnings per share 0.77 yuan, present value corresponding PE, PB were 5.96 times, 1.22 times. Keep increasing rating.